Local criminal justice systems that are operating at maximum system efficiency and effectiveness may still find themselves in the position of considering jail expansion. Before jail expansion planning begins it is critical to conduct an accurate population forecast. Luminosity has two nationally recognized Ph.D. level research statisticians who specialize in accurate population forecasting. Consideration must be given to all of the factors that affect jail populations including, but not limited to, changes in community population, crime and arrest trends, criminal justice resources and trends, shifts in criminal justice policy, and alternatives to incarceration. Considering these factors and utilizing current and historical jail data we develop customized forecasts using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) technique. Several forecasts are developed based on likely future scenarios and provided to our client to ensure the best planning of future jail space needs.







